Thanks to the distraction of a Donovan McNabb trade and the dislocating of my left knee (again), this year’s baseball preview is a few days late. But I don’t think enough can be gleamed from three days of play to taint my predictions for the 2010 season. It’s not like I ever get these right anyway.

I’ll get to the rest of the league momentarily, but first to the team which gets most of the coverage on this blog. Things are looking pretty sweet for the Philadelphia Phillies. The two-time defending National League champions have their sights squarely set on something not achieved in 66 years: three consecutive National League pennants. Win or lose the World Series this year and that would still be a hell of an accomplishment, especially in this era of multiple playoff rounds (something the 1942-44 St. Louis Cardinals didn’t have to worry about).

Of course, winning the World Series remains their ultimate goal. That’s what makes this team so special. They set aside ego and all other distractions typical to a modern professional sports team in the interest of winning championships. This is already the greatest collection of ballplayers ever assembled in a Phillies uniform; and after the next three or four years are done, when the core players are either exiting their prime, retiring or moving on to other teams, we might even be able to say they gave the 1929-31 Athletics a run for their money as the greatest baseball team to ever play in Philadelphia.

All of that depends on how well they fulfill their potential. They gave up a really good pitcher to get a great one and upgraded at third base and on the bench. The only real question mark is in the bullpen, and even that potential weakness may only last a few weeks until some key players return from injury. This kind of unbridled optimism is a weird feeling, but how else can one feel with a Cy Young winner, two league MVPs and a World Series MVP on the roster?

Philadelphians aren’t used to this kind of success. When is the other shoe going to drop?

As for the rest of the league, the more things change, the more they stay the same. I expect to see most of the same teams from last year in contention, with a few exceptions. But don’t worry. Bud says Major League Baseball’s competitive balance is as good as any other sport, so it must be true.

American League

AL East

1) Boston Red Sox
2) New York Yankees
3) Tampa Bay Rays
4) Baltimore Orioles
5) Toronto Blue Jays

They say pitching wins championships, and that could very well be the case for the Red Sox this year. They’ve got the best staff in MLB, Daisuke Matsuzaka notwithstanding. And despite notions to the contrary, their offense is plenty good enough. Even though you could argue the Yankees got better by adding Javier Vázquez and Curtis Granderson, everybody else got another year older. (I’m looking at you, Jorge Posada, Andy Pettite, Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera.) Still, it would take some catastrophic injuries and/or bad seasons from those veterans to miss the playoffs. Poor Tampa: They would probably win most other divisions, but them’s the breaks. Baltimore is slowly getter better—slowly being the operative word. Toronto won 75 games last year with Roy Halladay atop their rotation; without him, 65 looks optimistic.

AL Central

1) Chicago White Sox
2) Minnesota Twins
3) Detroit Tigers
4) Kansas City Royals
5) Cleveland Indians

At least President Obama can look forward to a division title for his White Sox. They’ve got the best combo of pitching and offense in the division. The Twins might have been my pick to repeat, but the loss of Joe Nathan is devastating. The Tigers have two great players in Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera, but everyone else is a question mark depending on what Jim Leyland can do with them. Kansas City returns with Cy Young winner Zack Greinke and a steadily improving team around him which could fight for a .500 record. The Indians are still a few years away from their rebuilding to bear fruit.

AL West

1) Los Angeles Angels
2) Seattle Mariners
3) Texas Rangers
4) Oakland Athletics

I cannot understand why everyone is so down on the Angels; they’re still the best team top-to-bottom in the division. Once Cliff Lee returns, Seattle will have the best 1-2 punch at starting pitcher in all of baseball. I’m just not sure if they’ll score enough runs the other three starts for it to matter. I’m pulling for Nolan Ryan’s eventual plan for a four-man rotation to pan out; I really am. But this Rangers team has too many injury-prone key players to reach his goal of 92 wins. How’s that Moneyball genius working out in Oakland?

AL Wild Card: New York Yankees
AL Champions: Boston Red Sox

National League

NL East

1) Philadelphia Phillies
2) Atlanta Braves
3) Florida Marlins
4) New York Mets
5) Washington Nationals

The Phillies have won two straight pennants, and now they have Roy Halladay to boot. The bullpen remains a weakness, but it can’t be any worse than last year. Atlanta scares the piss out me, but they’ve got some old pieces who break easily. Florida is young and full of fire, with a really solid rotation, but there are still too many outs in that lineup, even with Hanley Ramirez. Oh, the Mets. After Johan Santana they have nothing, not to mention their inability to stay healthy. At least the Nationals might not lose 100 games this year.

NL Central

1) St. Louis Cardinals
2) Milwaukee Brewers
3) Chicago Cubs
4) Cincinnati Reds
5) Pittsburgh Pirates
6) Houston Astros

The Cardinals would have to screw up royally not to win this laugher of a division. Milwaukee will likely finish well above .500, but that’s only because the rest of the division is so bad. The Cubs have enough talent to do better, but what makes you think they won’t fumble their way into third place? The Reds, on the other hand, are a team on the rise, just not this year. I actually believe the days of fire sales in Pittsburgh are done, and not because they have no one left to sell. They kept the guys they want to rebuild around, but it’ll be four or five years before the Pirates climb into contention. As for Houston, it’s not just my disdain for Ed Wade that has them in the basement. Decrepit stars mixed with unproven young talent often leads to the decrepit stars getting traded in July (look out Roy Oswalt) and even more losses down the stretch.

NL West

1) Colorado Rockies
2) Los Angeles Dodgers
3) San Francisco Giants
4) Arizona Diamondbacks
5) San Diego Padres

This totally violates my rule on a team playing at altitude winning anything, but there’s simply too much talent on the Rockies to ignore. And those humidors seem to work. The Dodgers would ordinarily be a strong pick to repeat, but they have all kinds of internal issues causing them problems. The Giants would like to think they’re ready to contend, but they forgot you have score runs to win games. Too much hinges on the eventual recovery of Brandon Webb for Arizona to get anywhere in 2010. Which bring us to the punching bag of the west, the Padres.

NL Wild Card: Atlanta Braves
NL Champions: Philadelphia Phillies

World Series Champions: Philadelphia Phillies

(What can I say? Dance with the one who brung ya.)

Awards

AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera
AL Cy Young: Felix Hernandez
NL MVP: Albert Pujols
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay

So there you have it, all my predictions sure to go wrong. Check back in November for the final results.

Yankee manager Joe Girardi’s three-man rotation may prove to be his downfall, and the Phillies finally seemed to overcome his childish stall tactics last night, but he’s still out-managing Charlie Manuel in the games. Or rather, Manuel is out-managing Manuel and handing the Yankees free runs with curious decisions like pulling Shane Victorino from the game in the top of the eighth for Ben Francisco instead of having Francisco replace Raul Ibanez.

With a six-run lead, does it matter if Victorino can’t throw very well from his finger injury in the first inning? If it was that bad, what was he doing in there from innings two through seven? And if it only became an issue to start the eighth, why not move Victorino to left field where throwing doesn’t matter as much? After all, you’re trying to collect six outs the old-fashioned way if possible. Either Francisco or Victorino could have camped under that ball Ibanez dove for and missed, and it cost the Phillies two runs.

It was almost Black Friday all over again.

Fortunately, Chase Utley is absolutely on fire. His two home runs not only tied Reggie Jackson’s single World Series record, they provided the spark and the cushion the Phillies needed to stay alive on a night when Cliff Lee gutted out a tough seven-plus innings in which he did not have his best stuff.

So the Phillies live to fight another day, and they’ve more than a puncher’s chance of seeing game seven. The Yankees send Old Man Pettite to the hill on three days’ rest and the Phils counter with Old Man Martinez on normal rest. Believe it or not, I think game six could hinge on the home plate umpire. A consistently liberal strike zone could mean a pitcher’s duel; a tight strike zone could spell Pettite’s doom. But if the ump feels pressure from the Yankee Stadium crowd and gives Pettite more slack than Martinez, he’ll hang the Phillies with it.

If Shakespeare were a beat writer following the Phillies, the lede to his story for last night’s game would have been, “Slider, o slider, where fore art thou slider?”

Matsui, two strikes, slider, popped up.

Jeter, two strikes, slider, struck out.

Damon, two strikes, fouls off several fastballs before poking one into left field for a single. Then all hell breaks loose.

Damon steals second. Brad Lidge forgets to cover third base with the shift on for Teixeira and Damon runs to the free base.

Runner on third, two outs. Lidge inexplicably plunks Teixeira to put runners on the corners. Still two outs.

The last time I checked, this is the World Series, the highest possible level of professional baseball. If the pitcher and coaches are too afraid to throw a slider for a strikeout because there’s a runner on third base who could score if the ball gets past Carlos Ruiz, then maybe it’s time to find new work. Perhaps something less stressful like calling bingo games at retirement communities.

Instead, the Yankees got a steady diet of Lidge’s lousy fastball (his trouble pitch all year long), sat on it, and clobbered it, blowing the game open.

The top of the ninth inning last night is a microcosm of why the Phillies are going to lose this series. Last year’s team finds a way to get Damon out at third, or last year’s Lidge actually gets him out at the plate with a SLIDER. This year’s team is so punch drunk on Joe Girardi’s steady dose of American League slowball, that their brains have become disconnected at the plate and in the field.

We all thought they were mentally tougher than this. Maybe they are, but not this week.

This World Series is shaping up to be 1993 all over again, except it’s the Cliff Lee show instead of the Curt Schilling show. Everything else that could go wrong has.

If the Phillies were playing their best baseball and still getting beat by the Yankees, I’d be OK with that. But they’re beating themselves, and that’s what hurts most watching this series.

The Phillies have dug themselves a huge hole, and their inimitable resolve is being tested like never before. If any team is capable of overcoming a 3-1 deficit, it’s this team. But don’t hold your breath.

While a 2-0 series lead would have been exceptional, the Phillies accomplished their goal of winning at least one of the first two games at Yankee Stadium to rip home field advantage away from the Yankees.

Apologies for the delayed posts to open the World Series, but I’ve had the whip cracked on me at work while struggling to whip a three-week old cold to boot. When you feel like hell during what little free time is available, spending it in front a computer again ain’t the path I take.

Anyway, what else can I write about Cliff Lee’s game one masterpiece that hasn’t already been written? The whole night it looked like the Yankees had no idea what pitch was coming next. They flailed hopelessly at everything he threw at them. Derek Jeter had a couple of good at-bats, but that was it.

It was a similar situation on the other side for the first seven innings, though the Phillies got a few more people on base against CC Sabathia, and the really good at-bats Chase Utley put together had a more historic result than Jeter’s. They made Sabathia throw a lot of pitches and feasted on a parade of middle relievers once he was out of the game to tack on runs and make a Yankee comeback unattainable.

Game two last night was the polar opposite of game one. This time it was A.J. Burnett with the masterful performance and Pedro Martinez with the good-but-not-quite-good-enough game.

Charlie Manuel is catching a lot of heat for not sending the runners when Chase Utley grounded into what wasn’t really a double play, but that’s after-the-fact managing on what was essentially a coin flip decision at the time. The good news is the Phillies made Mariano Rivera work hard for that two-inning save and proved to themselves they can get to him.

So far what we’ve seen in this World Series is just how evenly matched these two teams are on any given night, and why a lot of people’s predictions of a seven game series just might prove correct.

Starting with Cole Hamels tomorrow night, the Phillies can make sure they have the advantage if this series should head back to New York by winning at least two of the next three at home. The Yankees have been perplexed by the change-up all series, and Hamels has the best one on the team when it’s working. Let’s hope the rest did his fastball some good.

Now that the Yankees finally finished off the Angels, we’ll find out if beating the almighty men in navy pinstripes is the only way this Phillies ball club will get some respect as a great team. If they do, they could go down as one of the best National League teams in 50 years (and even better than that depending on how they perform in the next couple of seasons).

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves, because the Phillies definitely won’t. The task at hand is back-to-back world championships, and their opponent this year is certainly more formidable. But could they actually match up better against the Yankees than the Rays?

As unlikely as that may seem, the answer is yes.

Catcher
The regular season stats may not show it, and he may not have his own Sportscenter commercial, but the Phillies actually have a better catcher than the Yankees. For the second straight season, Carlos Ruiz has swung a hot bat in the postseason, while his work behind the plate remains exemplary. Defensively and as a signal-caller, he’s head-and-shoulders above Jorge Posada, who won’t even start every game in the series because he can’t get along with starter A.J. Burnett. Edge: Phillies

First Base
This is easily the most evenly matched position in the series. Ryan Howard’s defense is vastly improved from a year ago, but he still isn’t fit to spit shine Mark Teixeira’s Gold Gloves. On the other hand, he has more power than Teixeira and has driven in more runs this postseason than anyone except Alex Rodriguez. Teixeira is a better overall hitter, except for the postseason, when he has absolutely wilted, even while hitting in front of A-Rod. If Teixeira’s bat wakes up, he get’s the edge; if not, Howard does because he can change the face of any game with one swing. Edge: Even

Second Base
Robinson Cano is a former batting champion who recovered from a dismal 2008 campaign to put up good numbers again this year. A better pure hitter than Chase Utley, Cano doesn’t have the raw power, defense, hustle, intangibles and all-around moxie to compete with Utley—the best second sacker in the game. Edge: Phillies

Third Base
The only area this position even comes close to competitive is defense: Pedro Feliz is really good with the glove, but even he doesn’t match up to Alex Rodriguez, who isn’t even playing the right position (see below). A-Rod will probably finish his career with more home runs than anyone who ever played. The only people who will remember Feliz are Phillies fans. Of course, A-Rod had to pick this year to break out of his playoff funk. Edge: Yankees

Shortstop
This is another fairly even match up. Derek Jeter is a first-ballot Hall of Famer and a better hitter than Jimmy Rollins. J-Roll is a human vacuum cleaner at short, while Jeter should have swallowed his pride two years ago and moved to third base. Both players thrive in the clutch, though Jeter has a lot more experience in that area. Yankees fans idolize Jeter, and well they should, but he’s past his prime at shortstop; and if you offered me a straight-up trade of 2009 Jeter for 2009 Rollins—I’d pass without having to think about it. Edge: Phillies

Left Field
Raul Ibanez was one of the best free-agent signings anywhere in baseball this year, and he picked a good time to come back to life after strug-ga-ling mightily the last few months of the season. Refreshed, he’s a far more dangerous hitter than the almost-as-old Johnny Damon. Neither one of them is exactly Gold Glove material anymore, though Ibanez may have a slightly better throwing arm There’s a good chance Ibanez could DH in New York, putting the better-fielding Ben Francisco in left. Edge: Phillies

Center Field
Shane Victorino is as fast as they come, has a cannon for an arm, and his instincts on line drives and fly balls of all variety are matched by few major league centerfielders. They certainly aren’t matched by Melky Cabrera, the second of New York’s trio of left fielders. Victorino is also a much better hitter who steals bases with the best of them. Frankly, this isn’t much of a contest. Edge: Phillies

Right Field
One minute Jayson Werth looks terrible at the plate and the next he’s delivering a big two-strike hit to right. Regardless, his offensive numbers are much better than Nick Swisher, whose main claim to fame is loosening up the Yankees clubhouse. Werth also possesses a rocket arm and great speed, while Swisher shouldn’t even be playing right field. Again, not much of a contest. Edge: Phillies

Designated Hitter
The edge here depends on who is actually DH for the Phillies. If it’s Ibanez, he’s a superior hitter to Hideki Matsui, whose bad knees have robbed him of power and make him a liability on the bases. If the Phillies decide to mix and match at DH and leave Ibanez in left field, then Matsui gets the edge over whoever the Phillies bring in from the bench. Edge: Even

Starting Pitching
1) Day one is the mother of all pitching duels: CC Sabathia versus Cliff Lee. The two ex-Cleveland lefties have both been unhittable this postseason, and there’s no reason to think they won’t keep throwing zeroes. Of course, the Phillies did beat Sabathia in the playoffs last year when he was with Milwaukee. 2) Another great dual sets up for game two when Pedro Martinez returns to the big stage of Yankee stadium, where he loves the pressure and spotlight; A.J. Burnett used to be a semi-regular punching bag for the Phillies when he pitched for Florida. 3) The way Cole Hamels has pitched most of this year (without an out pitch), it’s hard not to give the edge to veteran Yankee southpaw Andy Pettite, though the Phillies could easily light up his stuff as well. 4) It’s almost a given that the Yankees will go with Sabathia on three days rest because the rest of their rotation… well, they don’t really have one. The Phillies will most likely turn to Joe Blanton, who hasn’t been real good in the playoffs. The good news is, that means Lee matches up against an inferior opponent in game five. Edge: Even

Bullpen
The Phillies bullpen has been much maligned this season, and with good reason; but they seem to have turned it around in the playoffs, with a few hiccups. The Yankees have the opposite problem. What was supposed to be a strength (middle relief) has become a crapshoot in the postseason. But whether or not Brad Lidge has hit the reset button since the playoffs started, there’s a reason Mariano Rivera is nicknamed the Hammer of God. Even the Phillies, with their propensity for late-inning heroics, cannot afford to give Rivera the ball with a lead. Edge: Yankees

Bench
Last year this would’ve been no contest in favor of the Phillies, but Greg Dobbs, Matt Stairs & Co. haven’t been anywhere near as good as last season. Having Matsui on the bench in the Philadelphia games could prove advantageous to the Yankees. Edge: Yankees

Manager
Charlie Manuel has 45 years of professional baseball experience and manages by instinct. Joe Girardi has three years of managerial experience and manages with a three-ring binder that looks like it holds the New York State tax code. Edge: Phillies

Summary
I mark it 7-3-3 in favor of the Phillies. Last year I had the Phillies with a 7-4-2 advantage over the Rays, and that worked out well. Hopefully, my amateur scouting skills haven’t worn off. But it seems clear to me that the Phillies have better team speed, play better defense and their lineup can go toe-to-toe with the Bronx Bombers. Even their pitching staffs are fairly even.

The Yankees are the best team money can buy, but not as many people are ready to hand them their 27th World Series title as you might think. Though the fact that so many are just because they are the Yankees, regardless of which team is actually the defending champion, tells you something about the lack of recognition the Phillies get for being a great team. Well, there’s one way to fix that…

Last year I wrote: “I feel good about this. Much more calm than I should be, really.”

I never would have thought I’d be sitting here at the same time again the following year feeling exactly the same way.

The Phillies may or may not win this World Series. Despite my dominant scouting edge in favor of the Phightins, I don’t share J-Roll’s confidence about a five-game victory. If they do win, I think it will probably take more than that. But I absolutely, 100 percent believe they can beat the Yankees; and so do they.

Not too many seasons ago, beating the Yankees in a World Series would have been unthinkable to both Philadelphia player and fan.

My how times have changed.