As for Hunter Pence, I’ve watched him play a lot here in Texas, and he’s pretty good; but he’s not worth trading Domonic Brown to get. If they wouldn’t trade Brown for Roy Halladay, why the hell would they trade him for Hunter Pence? If the Phillies can get Pence for a couple of pitching prospects, without including Brown, then I’m all for it. An outfield of Shane Victorino, Pence (RF) and Brown (LF, move him there since fielding is his obvious weakness) sounds pretty damn good over the next few seasons. But Brown is going to be a hell of a good hitter someday soon, and they’ll regret losing him. You can already tell by his plate discipline how good he’ll be. Once he starts squaring up major league pitches regularly, watch out.

Anyway, I guess now I’m panicked that they’ll trade Brown for a good player who won’t match up with him at all in a couple of years. And as I’ve said, I actually like Pence, too.

Ultimately, it comes down to pitching and some good timely hitting, as the Giants showed last season. No matter what moves the other teams in the race make, this Phillies team, as it is right now, is still the favorite against any other team in the playoffs (except Boston maybe, but that would be a terrific World Series). And I don’t see how subtracting Brown and adding Pence would change that at all.

I’ll get to the rest of the league momentarily, but first to the team which gets most of the coverage on this blog. Things are looking pretty sweet for the Philadelphia Phillies. The two-time defending National League champions have their sights squarely set on something not achieved in 66 years: three consecutive National League pennants. Win or lose the World Series this year and that would still be a hell of an accomplishment, especially in this era of multiple playoff rounds (something the 1942-44 St. Louis Cardinals didn’t have to worry about).

Of course, winning the World Series remains their ultimate goal. That’s what makes this team so special. They set aside ego and all other distractions typical to a modern professional sports team in the interest of winning championships. This is already the greatest collection of ballplayers ever assembled in a Phillies uniform; and after the next three or four years are done, when the core players are either exiting their prime, retiring or moving on to other teams, we might even be able to say they gave the 1929-31 Athletics a run for their money as the greatest baseball team to ever play in Philadelphia.

All of that depends on how well they fulfill their potential. They gave up a really good pitcher to get a great one and upgraded at third base and on the bench. The only real question mark is in the bullpen, and even that potential weakness may only last a few weeks until some key players return from injury. This kind of unbridled optimism is a weird feeling, but how else can one feel with a Cy Young winner, two league MVPs and a World Series MVP on the roster?

Philadelphians aren’t used to this kind of success. When is the other shoe going to drop?

As for the rest of the league, the more things change, the more they stay the same. I expect to see most of the same teams from last year in contention, with a few exceptions. But don’t worry. Bud says Major League Baseball’s competitive balance is as good as any other sport, so it must be true.

American League

AL East

1) Boston Red Sox
2) New York Yankees
3) Tampa Bay Rays
4) Baltimore Orioles
5) Toronto Blue Jays

They say pitching wins championships, and that could very well be the case for the Red Sox this year. They’ve got the best staff in MLB, Daisuke Matsuzaka notwithstanding. And despite notions to the contrary, their offense is plenty good enough. Even though you could argue the Yankees got better by adding Javier Vázquez and Curtis Granderson, everybody else got another year older. (I’m looking at you, Jorge Posada, Andy Pettite, Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera.) Still, it would take some catastrophic injuries and/or bad seasons from those veterans to miss the playoffs. Poor Tampa: They would probably win most other divisions, but them’s the breaks. Baltimore is slowly getter better—slowly being the operative word. Toronto won 75 games last year with Roy Halladay atop their rotation; without him, 65 looks optimistic.

AL Central

1) Chicago White Sox
2) Minnesota Twins
3) Detroit Tigers
4) Kansas City Royals
5) Cleveland Indians

At least President Obama can look forward to a division title for his White Sox. They’ve got the best combo of pitching and offense in the division. The Twins might have been my pick to repeat, but the loss of Joe Nathan is devastating. The Tigers have two great players in Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera, but everyone else is a question mark depending on what Jim Leyland can do with them. Kansas City returns with Cy Young winner Zack Greinke and a steadily improving team around him which could fight for a .500 record. The Indians are still a few years away from their rebuilding to bear fruit.

AL West

1) Los Angeles Angels
2) Seattle Mariners
3) Texas Rangers
4) Oakland Athletics

I cannot understand why everyone is so down on the Angels; they’re still the best team top-to-bottom in the division. Once Cliff Lee returns, Seattle will have the best 1-2 punch at starting pitcher in all of baseball. I’m just not sure if they’ll score enough runs the other three starts for it to matter. I’m pulling for Nolan Ryan’s eventual plan for a four-man rotation to pan out; I really am. But this Rangers team has too many injury-prone key players to reach his goal of 92 wins. How’s that Moneyball genius working out in Oakland?

AL Wild Card: New York Yankees
AL Champions: Boston Red Sox

National League

NL East

1) Philadelphia Phillies
2) Atlanta Braves
3) Florida Marlins
4) New York Mets
5) Washington Nationals

The Phillies have won two straight pennants, and now they have Roy Halladay to boot. The bullpen remains a weakness, but it can’t be any worse than last year. Atlanta scares the piss out me, but they’ve got some old pieces who break easily. Florida is young and full of fire, with a really solid rotation, but there are still too many outs in that lineup, even with Hanley Ramirez. Oh, the Mets. After Johan Santana they have nothing, not to mention their inability to stay healthy. At least the Nationals might not lose 100 games this year.

NL Central

1) St. Louis Cardinals
2) Milwaukee Brewers
3) Chicago Cubs
4) Cincinnati Reds
5) Pittsburgh Pirates
6) Houston Astros

The Cardinals would have to screw up royally not to win this laugher of a division. Milwaukee will likely finish well above .500, but that’s only because the rest of the division is so bad. The Cubs have enough talent to do better, but what makes you think they won’t fumble their way into third place? The Reds, on the other hand, are a team on the rise, just not this year. I actually believe the days of fire sales in Pittsburgh are done, and not because they have no one left to sell. They kept the guys they want to rebuild around, but it’ll be four or five years before the Pirates climb into contention. As for Houston, it’s not just my disdain for Ed Wade that has them in the basement. Decrepit stars mixed with unproven young talent often leads to the decrepit stars getting traded in July (look out Roy Oswalt) and even more losses down the stretch.

NL West

1) Colorado Rockies
2) Los Angeles Dodgers
3) San Francisco Giants
4) Arizona Diamondbacks
5) San Diego Padres

This totally violates my rule on a team playing at altitude winning anything, but there’s simply too much talent on the Rockies to ignore. And those humidors seem to work. The Dodgers would ordinarily be a strong pick to repeat, but they have all kinds of internal issues causing them problems. The Giants would like to think they’re ready to contend, but they forgot you have score runs to win games. Too much hinges on the eventual recovery of Brandon Webb for Arizona to get anywhere in 2010. Which bring us to the punching bag of the west, the Padres.

NL Wild Card: Atlanta Braves
NL Champions: Philadelphia Phillies

World Series Champions: Philadelphia Phillies

(What can I say? Dance with the one who brung ya.)

Awards

AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera
AL Cy Young: Felix Hernandez
NL MVP: Albert Pujols
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay

So there you have it, all my predictions sure to go wrong. Check back in November for the final results.

Let’s see: You play in the toughest division in the NFL and you just instantly made the only bad team in that division better. Does this make sense on any level?

After the year McNabb just had, there’s no way Reid believes he has nothing left in the tank. More likely, the Eagles know McNabb is only going to be in Washington for one season, which happens to be the same season they are using to rebuild. Even though Reid & Co. won’t publicly cop to rebuilding, trading McNabb to the Redskins is tacit admission that they do not believe they can compete in 2010, so it doesn’t matter if McNabb beats them once or twice this year. 2011 is their target year for competing again, and by then McNabb will be somewhere else. (Probably Minnesota, but I’ll come back to that thought in a moment.)

From Washington’s perspective, for the first time in anyone’s memory, the Redskins are playing second fiddle to a hockey team. Not only did they need to make a splash to restore interest, Mike Shanahan jumped at the chance to have an actual quarterback to coach and perhaps help mentor whoever they draft to be their QB of the future. But there’s one other possibility here: Could the Redskins, who are short on draft picks, package McNabb in a deal with one of the teams where Reid didn’t want to send him? Stay tuned on draft day for that possibility.

That leads to what I think bugs me most about this trade. If the only offers come from lousy non-divisional teams, and you feel bad about trading him there, then don’t trade him. If you feel like you have to trade him, do what’s in the best interests of your team. Sending him to another team in your division does not apply. Even if Washington’s offer included better draft picks, the fact that they’re in your division has to be a mitigating factor in your decision.

Anyway, what’s done is done. Most likely McNabb will stick with the Redskins this season, and unless Daniel Snyder throws a contract extension his way, he’ll become a free agent in 2011 and wind up in Minnesota once Brett Favre finally retires, where he’ll have a better than decent chance to finally win that elusive Super Bowl.

Adios, Donovan. All the best.

As anyone who has read this blog with any regularity knows (if I actually write something for it), I have been one of the seemingly few voices of reason when it comes to Donovan McNabb. Despite falling short of that ultimate goal we all crave, he has been the field general for the winningest period in franchise history and is, hands down, the best quarterback to ever suit up for the Philadelphia Eagles.

The last few seasons and 2004 being the exceptions, for the last 11 years McNabb has shepherded an offense to relatively great success with one weapon at his disposal: Brian Westbrook. Short of throwing the ball to himself, McNabb’s remaining options were illustrious talents such as Todd Pinkston, L.J. Smith, Freddie Mitchell, James Thrash, Kevin Curtis and Reggie Brown. Winning as many games and division titles as they did, and reaching all those NFC Championship games, is a testament to two things: the late Jim Johnson’s terrific defenses and the enormous talent of McNabb and Westbrook.

So now that Andy Reid is prepared to detach McNabb from his gigantic hip, and so many of you are perhaps about to get your wish granted, I still say, be careful what you wish for. You just might get it.

The Eagles have no one to blame but themselves for this mess. McNabb is still this team’s best chance to win right now. That point is inarguable. For better or worse, Kevin Kolb is the Eagles’ QB of the future. That, too, is immutable truth. Both men are in the last year of their contracts, and only one (Kolb) is going to get an extension. Even this McNabb supporter has to concede that trading McNabb while he still has value is the most logical course of action.

But trading him is more complicated than many people would think. If the NFL were to clear all the rosters and start over with a fresh draft, McNabb would be taken in the top 20. This is still a quarterback league, and he’s one of the few franchise-level players, even at age 33. So the Eagles can’t simply let him go for a third round pick. If Oakland is indeed the strongest suitor, they don’t even have a first round pick to offer until 2012.

On a side note, Oakland sounds like a terrible place for McNabb to end up, but I think he could actually help the Raiders enormously. They have a decent running game, a track team full of receivers and a pretty good defense. They managed five wins with JaMarcus Russell and Brad Gradkowski at QB. In that weak division, with McNabb at the helm, the Raiders could be in wild card contention next year.

I don’t believe the Eagles will trade McNabb if they can’t get fair value for him. There are also a limited number of teams with whom they can deal. This talk of Minnesota if Brett Favre finally retires is ridiculous. If they trade McNabb to a contender and he wins the Super Bowl, Reid & Co. look like even bigger jackasses than they do already. McNabb may end up a Viking in 2011 as a free agent, but there’s no way in hell he’ll be in Minnesota, or with any other contender, in 2010.

But if they do get a good deal from an acceptable team, what happens to the Eagles next? Well, the Kevin Kolb era can go two ways.

Optimistically, let’s say Kolb is more or less as good as McNabb. Reid will still be the head coach, so the same systemic issues will continue to plague the team, and the Eagles will most likely keep coming up short of a Super Bowl victory. If, however, they somehow should reach the top of that mountain in the next five years, Kolb will be toasted for accomplishing what McNabb could not, and people will overlook the fact that, unlike McNabb’s first 10 years as starter, Kolb had a host of talent around him at every skill position (Brent Celek, DeSean Jackson, LeSean McCoy, Jeremy Maclin and Jason Avant).

More likely, Kolb will be a decent QB, but not nearly as good as McNabb, and the Eagles will continue to fail upward at best, reaching the playoffs occasionally but never getting close to a championship. One thing is certain: McNabb has the lowest interception percentage in NFL history, so get ready for turnovers to increase. And turnovers kill.

Whether McNabb has already played his last game as an Eagle, or he gets one more shot at the Super Bowl in 2010, his eventual departure from Philadelphia seems unavoidable at this point. So consider this my fond farewell to our beleaguered quarterback, who never got a fair shake from the city of brotherly love, who made as many brilliant plays for every pass he clanked off his deadbeat receivers or the turf, who rarely got any personnel help from the stubborn coach/GM who forced him repeatedly to do it all on his own with no running game, who still managed to win more games than any other QB in the history of the franchise.

Donovan, here’s one fan who is very glad you were an Eagle.

And so we’ve reached the end of the road with Brian Westbrook. His days of playing for the Philadelphia Eagles are over.

As sorry as I am to see him go, I can’t say I really blame the Eagles. $7.25 million for a guy who can’t stay on the field more than 10 minutes really isn’t a smart use of money. In fact, depending on which sources you read, Westbrook’s left knee could be so messed up he might not be able to pass a physical with any team. So not only are the Eagles not interested, no other teams may want him either.

I find that last possibility unlikely (someone will take a flyer on a guy who used to be one of the most dynamic playmakers in the league), but whether he’s played his last game for the Eagles or forever, his career deserves some retrospective praise.

Where would the Eagles have been this past decade if Andy Reid hadn’t wandered over to Villanova from his house and watched Westbrook tear up Division I-AA, basically stealing a first round player in the third round? Quite a few less division titles and playoff wins I imagine. His value to the Eagles and their success under Reid cannot be understated.

In his prime, Westbrook was perhaps the most feared player in the NFL. Anytime he touched the football, something spectacular could and often did happen. Even when they didn’t give him the ball, his presence as a decoy helped Donovan McNabb make good use of a grab bag of bums at wide receiver. I’ll have two lasting impressions of Westbrook, the first being the nonchalant way he scored almost all of his 68 touchdowns: Handing the ball to the official and jogging back to the sideline with a look of dissatisfaction, as though he could have been better on that scoring drive.

The other way I’ll remember him is from the 2004 NFC divisional playoff game against the Vikings—more specifically, from the NFL Films recap of the game. In the footage, Minnesota’s defensive coaches are constantly telling their players (and the players telling each other), “watch out for 36,” juxtaposed against footage of the Vikings’ total inability to contain the one player they were completely focused on stopping. That was vintage Westbrook.

Westbrook retires as the franchise’s all-time leader in yards from scrimmage (9,785), second in rushing yards (5,995) behind Wilbert Montgomery, third in receptions (426) behind Harold Carmichael and Pete Retzlaff, and third in touchdowns behind Carmichael and Steve Van Buren. He also holds the franchise’s single-season record for most yards from scrimmage (a league-leading 2,104 in 2007) and most receptions in a season (90 in 2007).

The Eagles have only had three great running backs in the history of the franchise: Van Buren, Montgomery and Westbrook. So I ask you, where does he rank?

And speaking of fizzling out, the Eagles’ rash of injuries finally caught up to them as they finished the 2009 season in the most embarrassing fashion possible—getting blown out by the hated Dallas Cowboys in two consecutive weeks (the first of which, 24-0, I witnessed in person), the second of which eliminated them from the playoffs.

The Phillies

Let’s take this look back chronologically and start with the Phillies’ inevitable failure in the World Series. I say inevitable because they just didn’t play good baseball that week. Neither did the Yankees, frankly; but in all of the little strategic decisions and details that are part of a game, the Yankees were simply better. Their brain cramps in game four, both on the field and in the dugout, are perfect examples of why the Phillies just weren’t up to snuff in that series.

Hardly resting on their laurels, a few short months later the Phillies made what is probably the largest blockbuster trade in franchise history. Remember how great it felt to have Steve Carlton take the mound every fourth day? Well, get ready to feel that sensation again, only every fifth day, when Roy Halladay takes the field for the Phillies in 2010. Ruben Amaro wound up trading away almost everyone the Blue Jays were demanding when the Phillies tried to get Halladay back in July, but this time they restocked the cupboard with prospects from the Mariners when they dealt Cliff Lee to Seattle in a separate trade.

It’s almost hard to fathom how good the Phillies would be this season with Halladay and Lee in the rotation together. Throw in a rejuvenated Cole Hamels and the rest of the National League would have been in serious trouble. That didn’t happen for three reasons: 1) Cliff Lee was owed $9 million in 2010, as is the untradable Jamie Moyer, and the Phillies were already at their budget limit; 2) Getting Halladay seriously depleted the farm system, so they had to get something in return to make sure they could compete for many years in the future, not just 2010; 3) Amaro is counting on Hamels finding his old form and essentially filling the role of Lee in the No. 2 spot in the rotation.

While having Halladay and Lee together was a wonderful, brief fantasy for both fans and the Phillies brass no doubt, it just wasn’t practical, and it’s hard to argue with their decision to think about the future. They made the current team better for the next four years (if you think Lee was good, wait until Halladay marches through the NL like Sherman marched to the sea), and they made sure they still have talent left in the system to keep them competitive when Halladay and the rest of the core players start approaching the twilight of their careers.

Don’t forget their other significant move: bringing Placido Polanco back to town to play third base, a signing not without irony since it was Polanco’s distaste for playing third which led to his trade to Detroit when Chase Utley took over as the Phillies’ everyday second baseman back in 2005. He is a significant downgrade from Pedro Feliz defensively, but an equally significant upgrade at the plate. Forget all those bad at-bats from Feliz and pencil Polanco into the 2-spot.

I’ll post a more thorough preview of the 2010 club in a few days.

The Eagles

Oh, where to begin?

As I pointed out to my many Cowboy-fan friends, the Cowboys were the healthiest team in the NFL and finished the regular season 11-5, while the Eagles were the most-injured team in the league and also finished 11-5 against basically the same schedule as the Cowboys. What does that tell you? Maybe it’s just a way for me to rationalize the beatdown they took from Dallas in those final two games, but I actually believe there is something to this.

The Eagles lost so many key starters to injury, starting in training camp with middle linebacker Stewart Bradley for the whole season and half the offensive line for various stretches, and on into the season with a secondary riddled by so many injuries Sean McDermott fielded a squad of third-stringers and guys they picked up off the street. Don’t forget Brian Westbrook’s concussions (he’s kind of an important player). When Jamal Jackson blew out his knee in game 15, that was just the straw that broke the camel’s back.

My theory was somewhat justified when the Cowboys had their asses kicked by the Vikings the following week, proving that Dallas really wasn’t that good either.

The point is, the Eagles getting to 11-5 and a wild card berth was probably a minor miracle in football terms. In a lot of ways,  2009 may have been Andy Reid’s best job as head coach. There’s a lot of speculation about the future of certain players, most of which I feel is overblown (McNabb isn’t going anywhere, though Westbrook may have played his last game with the team). If the Eagles stay healthy next season, and Reid’s offensive line plan actually works out the way he originally planned in 2009, look out in 2010. This team has the potential to be very very good.

Look for more thoughts from me on the 2010 Eagles around NFL draft time in April. For now, with spring training underway to fill the horrible sports void between football and baseball season, expect a full slate of Phillies coverage now that I’m up and running again.

With a six-run lead, does it matter if Victorino can’t throw very well from his finger injury in the first inning? If it was that bad, what was he doing in there from innings two through seven? And if it only became an issue to start the eighth, why not move Victorino to left field where throwing doesn’t matter as much? After all, you’re trying to collect six outs the old-fashioned way if possible. Either Francisco or Victorino could have camped under that ball Ibanez dove for and missed, and it cost the Phillies two runs.

It was almost Black Friday all over again.

Fortunately, Chase Utley is absolutely on fire. His two home runs not only tied Reggie Jackson’s single World Series record, they provided the spark and the cushion the Phillies needed to stay alive on a night when Cliff Lee gutted out a tough seven-plus innings in which he did not have his best stuff.

So the Phillies live to fight another day, and they’ve more than a puncher’s chance of seeing game seven. The Yankees send Old Man Pettite to the hill on three days’ rest and the Phils counter with Old Man Martinez on normal rest. Believe it or not, I think game six could hinge on the home plate umpire. A consistently liberal strike zone could mean a pitcher’s duel; a tight strike zone could spell Pettite’s doom. But if the ump feels pressure from the Yankee Stadium crowd and gives Pettite more slack than Martinez, he’ll hang the Phillies with it.

Matsui, two strikes, slider, popped up.

Jeter, two strikes, slider, struck out.

Damon, two strikes, fouls off several fastballs before poking one into left field for a single. Then all hell breaks loose.

Damon steals second. Brad Lidge forgets to cover third base with the shift on for Teixeira and Damon runs to the free base.

Runner on third, two outs. Lidge inexplicably plunks Teixeira to put runners on the corners. Still two outs.

The last time I checked, this is the World Series, the highest possible level of professional baseball. If the pitcher and coaches are too afraid to throw a slider for a strikeout because there’s a runner on third base who could score if the ball gets past Carlos Ruiz, then maybe it’s time to find new work. Perhaps something less stressful like calling bingo games at retirement communities.

Instead, the Yankees got a steady diet of Lidge’s lousy fastball (his trouble pitch all year long), sat on it, and clobbered it, blowing the game open.

The top of the ninth inning last night is a microcosm of why the Phillies are going to lose this series. Last year’s team finds a way to get Damon out at third, or last year’s Lidge actually gets him out at the plate with a SLIDER. This year’s team is so punch drunk on Joe Girardi’s steady dose of American League slowball, that their brains have become disconnected at the plate and in the field.

We all thought they were mentally tougher than this. Maybe they are, but not this week.

This World Series is shaping up to be 1993 all over again, except it’s the Cliff Lee show instead of the Curt Schilling show. Everything else that could go wrong has.

If the Phillies were playing their best baseball and still getting beat by the Yankees, I’d be OK with that. But they’re beating themselves, and that’s what hurts most watching this series.

The Phillies have dug themselves a huge hole, and their inimitable resolve is being tested like never before. If any team is capable of overcoming a 3-1 deficit, it’s this team. But don’t hold your breath.

Apologies for the delayed posts to open the World Series, but I’ve had the whip cracked on me at work while struggling to whip a three-week old cold to boot. When you feel like hell during what little free time is available, spending it in front a computer again ain’t the path I take.

Anyway, what else can I write about Cliff Lee’s game one masterpiece that hasn’t already been written? The whole night it looked like the Yankees had no idea what pitch was coming next. They flailed hopelessly at everything he threw at them. Derek Jeter had a couple of good at-bats, but that was it.

It was a similar situation on the other side for the first seven innings, though the Phillies got a few more people on base against CC Sabathia, and the really good at-bats Chase Utley put together had a more historic result than Jeter’s. They made Sabathia throw a lot of pitches and feasted on a parade of middle relievers once he was out of the game to tack on runs and make a Yankee comeback unattainable.

Game two last night was the polar opposite of game one. This time it was A.J. Burnett with the masterful performance and Pedro Martinez with the good-but-not-quite-good-enough game.

Charlie Manuel is catching a lot of heat for not sending the runners when Chase Utley grounded into what wasn’t really a double play, but that’s after-the-fact managing on what was essentially a coin flip decision at the time. The good news is the Phillies made Mariano Rivera work hard for that two-inning save and proved to themselves they can get to him.

So far what we’ve seen in this World Series is just how evenly matched these two teams are on any given night, and why a lot of people’s predictions of a seven game series just might prove correct.

Starting with Cole Hamels tomorrow night, the Phillies can make sure they have the advantage if this series should head back to New York by winning at least two of the next three at home. The Yankees have been perplexed by the change-up all series, and Hamels has the best one on the team when it’s working. Let’s hope the rest did his fastball some good.