I listened to yesterday’s massacre on Westwood One while driving home from a gluttonous weekend in New Orleans, and it certainly didn’t help my alcohol/sleep deprivation-induced hangover.
As I’ve been writing on this blog for some time now, Andy Reid’s “system” is broken—a fact he stubbornly refuses to admit. Benching Donovan McNabb at halftime trailing by three points had one of two purposes:
1) Reid is so spiteful of the cries to get rid of his slumping quarterback that he put Kevin Kolb in just to tell those calling for McNabb’s head, “be careful what you wish for.”
2) Reid cannot figure out why his offense no longer works, so before the blame shifts to him (from a front office perspective—many of us already blame him), he’s going to pin it on his quarterback—a desperate, cowardly act committed by all modern-day NFL coaches trying to keep their heads off the chopping block.
I’m going with the latter on this one. Even while spewing the same nonsense coach speak he has for the past 10 years, it’s clear Reid is fumbling toward oblivion. His sideburns graying more each week, he is at a loss for why his vaunted offensive system can’t get off the ground anymore. If sticking to the system is wrong, then he clearly doesn’t want to be right.
Reid irrevocably undermined McNabb’s leadership role at the most inopportune moment, throwing Kolb to a ravenous Ravens defense against which he stood little chance. Now with a short week coming up, Reid has already named McNabb the starter for their Thanksgiving night home game against the Cardinals, a move he almost had to make given the lack of preparation time. If McNabb gets back on track, Reid can stick with him the rest of the season and re-evaluate then. If McNabb has another clunker, Kolb will have 10 days to get all his affairs in order before facing the Giants in the Meadowlands.
The Eagles as an organization are between a serious rock and hard place. The defense (with the exception of needing to find a suitable replacement for Brian Dawkins) is set up to be relatively successful for some time to come. The offense, no matter what happens this off-season, could be years away from recovery.
Once again, allow me to use the list format to explain the four possible outcomes I see emerging at year’s end, along with their probability of occurrence:
1) Nothing changes. Jeffery Lurie sticks with Andy Reid, who decides to stick with Donovan McNabb. The system stays the same, offensive tackles William Thomas and Jon Runyan are another year older and/or retired (as is Brian Dawkins), Brian Westbrook has another year of mileage on him, and Reid performs the same tip-top job of personnel moves that brought us Mike Mamula and Lorenzo Booker. An already anemic running game starts to resemble a 1982 Bonneville being driven to market by a 96-year-old woman with glaucoma. Look for another 5- to 7-win season. This has about as much chance of happening as I do of sweeping Scarlett Johansson off her feet.
2) Reid stays, McNabb goes. Kolb’s chances of being as good as McNabb are slim to none; but even if he is, we’ll never know it because he’ll be trying to run the same stupid, obsolete, inept offense. See scenario number one regarding offensive personnel quandaries and a running game collapsing faster than the stock market. If he isn’t as good as McNabb, well, there’s always the 2010 draft. Either way, the Eagles won’t be getting anywhere near the playoffs for a while. This is actually the most likely scenario, unfortunately.
3) McNabb stays, Reid goes. I give this a fair-to-midland chance, but only if Reid gets fed up and decides to retire, because Lurie is unlikely to fire him. The new coach, whoever he is, would most likely see McNabb as the better option at QB and keep him (unless the coach wants to start with a clean slate—see option number four). In any event, it takes time for a new coach to implement a new system and for the existing players to adjust, sometimes a full season or two. By then McNabb is 34 or 35 years old (if he survives that long behind an O-line without the aforementioned Thomas and Runyan), Westbrook will be used up, and the only current player likely to be making any kind of impact will be DeSean Jackson (if he survives that long at his size). Basically, Philadelphia would have to endure a few more losing seasons and give the new coach enough latitude to rebuild the entire offense through the draft and free agency. Good luck with that.
4) Reid and McNabb both go. This is also possible, but not nearly as likely as scenarios two and three, because Reid probably isn’t going anywhere. But should he decide to depart, and should the new coach decide to give Kolb a shot and move McNabb for some draft picks, this has potential. Not potential for success, just potential to occur. Remember, we still have no idea if Kolb is any good at all (though this scenario at least gives him a fighter’s chance if he has something); but he’ll still struggle while the new coach rebuilds the rest of the aging offense. And if Kolb isn’t any good, or if the new coach decides he wants to draft and groom his own guy, once again the Eagles are in rebuilding mode and battling to stay out of the NFC East cellar.
Have I painted a gloomy enough picture for the future prospects of this once proud organization? In a little more than two months, I’ve gone from predicting a Super Bowl win this season to at least two more losing seasons after this one.
Imagine where Philadelphia’s collective psyche would be if the Phillies hadn’t just won the World Series with a legitimately decent chance at repeating.
We’d be Cleveland.