If this morning’s news item about Pedro Martinez coming to Philadelphia to take a physical is indeed true, then I hope he fails it. If he doesn’t, then Ruben Amaro is about to fail his first major test as general manager.

Roy Halladay is the surest bet to hit the baseball trading block in many a season. Pedro Martinez is like trying to pick up an inside straight. But naturally that won’t stop Amaro from reverting to the pattern of his forebears.

I’ve read an awful lot of feedback on various message boards across the Interwebs arguing over which minor league prospects should remain untouchable in a Halladay deal. To those of you who live solely in the world of the National League East and don’t understand how good a pitcher Halladay is, let me explain something to you: If the Blue Jays want the entire Phillies farm system, they can have it. He’s that good.

Halladay is the only pitcher alive with a decent chance to reach 300 wins (he’s well ahead of Randy Johnson’s pace at the same age). He pitches deep into almost every game, allowing overworked bullpens to recuperate. He throws an incredible sinker, thus negating the home runs surrendered by the Safe-Deposit Box. And most importantly, he stays healthy.

There is absolutely no downside to trading for Halladay. Do you really want to pass him up to protect a 21-year-old pitcher who’s already had Tommy John surgery and hasn’t proven anything at the major league level? Even if Kyle Drabek or any of the other prospects go on to become stars somewhere else, the Phillies are built to win NOW, and Halladay would all but clinch another World Series appearance or two (maybe more if they extended his contract).

Let’s play a game of best/worst:

— Best case scenario in trading for Roy Halladay: He takes pressure off Cole Hamels, with whom he forms the best 1-2 punch in the majors and leads the current core group of Phillies to three of the next five World Series (after they sign him to a four-year contract extension), winning two of them.

— Worst case: Barring some kind of freak accident/injury, he wins 30 games over the next season-and-a-half, leading them to the playoffs at least once; they fail to resign him for 2011 and beyond and Kyle Drabek wins a Cy Young for the Blue Jays in 2012, who still haven’t made the playoffs since 1993.

Wouldn’t you still make that deal? Meanwhile…

— Best case scenario in signing Pedro Martinez: The Phillies spend $4 million on a washed up future Hall of Famer who surrenders 15 home runs in 10 starts and finishes the year 4-4 with a 4.50 ERA and/or on the IR; maybe they make the playoffs in 2009, maybe not.

— Worst case: They spend $4 million on a washed up future Hall of Famer who blows his shoulder out before he ever leaves Allentown. Meanwhile, Halladay is traded to the Mets or somewhere else and signs with the Mets as a free agent in 2011, tormenting the Phillies with Johan Santana for years to come.

That was money well spent. But at least they kept Drabek to make that World Series run three years from now.

Championships are really, really, really hard to come by in major sports today. The Phillies have a core group of great players under contract for the next three years (some longer) who are all entering their prime and who have already won one World Series. With Roy Halladay on the roster, they could dominate the National League and have a great puncher’s chance at a few more championships. Or they could play it cheap and hope that what they’ve got is good enough to get it done again, even though history has proven it rarely is.

For God’s sake, go for it now, Ruben. Whatever it takes, he’ll be worth it.

Update: Signing Martinez seems to be a done deal; however, there’s some indication that this decision is not a matter of Pedro vs. Halladay, but that Pedro is merely insurance against the continued struggles of Jamie Moyer and the revolving fifth starter door that’s been spinning since Brett Myers was injured. If that’s true, and Amaro is still serious about landing Halladay, then go ahead, take a flier on Pedro. If not, you’re dead to me, Ruben.