Now that Roy Halladay is officially staying put, it looks like Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. may have pulled off the theoretically impossible: blinking first in a game of chicken and still winning. Let’s speculate and extrapolate, shall we?

There’s only reason anyone would consider trading Roy Halladay—because Toronto GM J.P. Ricciardi was ordered by the suits upstairs to dump his salary (remember those days in Philadelphia?). Not wanting to look like a guy who just dropped the soap in a prison shower, Ricciardi acted like moving Halladay was unnecessary and that only top dollar would get him. But he overplayed his hand so badly in the press that it was obvious he was trying to bluff J.A. Happ, Kyle Drabek and Dominic Brown away from the Phillies because he thought that Amaro absolutely had to have Halladay.

Unfortunately for Ricciardi, Cleveland put the reigning American League Cy Young award winner on the market for way less than what he was demanding for Halladay. Amaro called Ricciardi’s bluff, dealing four lesser minor leaguers for Cliff Lee and outfielder Ben Francisco instead of Halladay, preserving Happ and the prospects Ricciardi was lusting after and for whom Amaro, for whatever reason, was unwilling to part with for Halladay.

In the end, Ricciardi could have had the same deal Cleveland got, plus Happ; but he refused to fold and lost. Now he won’t get nearly as good a deal for Halladay in the offseason and will get even less if he waits until next year’s trade deadline (if he still has his job then). Meanwhile, the Phillies became the clear front-runners in the National League and serious contenders to repeat as World Champions in 2009 and/or 2010.

Should have kept that soap on a rope, J.P.

To be fair, Amaro got a little lucky here as well. If Cleveland hadn’t gone into rapid rebuilding mode, he would have had to decide between Halladay and his precious prospects. It’s a no-brainer to me, but apparently it was a little harder for him to swallow. Frankly, Cliff Lee or no Cliff Lee, I still would have made the Halladay trade. Lee is a really good pitcher, but he’s no Roy Halladay. When the odds are 50/50 that Drabek becomes the next Mark Prior instead of the next Halladay, you go get the actual Halladay.

Still, all things considered, Amaro came out way ahead on this deal, despite an overload of southpaws who all throw the same stuff and a logjam of starting pitchers with Pedro Martinez ready to join the rotation soon. It’s a nice problem to have, especially if someone comes down with an injury.

It’ll make for some interesting decisions come playoff time, but we’ll address those issues if and when they get there. For now, they need get healthy and stay focused for the stretch run. Except for Lee’s debut Friday night, that was some lousy baseball and a lot of lousy at bats this weekend in San Francisco.